Wednesday, June 04, 2008

Democratic Reality Check

Is Obama's nomination for certain?
Media says yes, Hillary says nothing, Super delegates say I guess so

If you turn on any 24-hour news channel, pick up a newspaper or open up the Internet, the general election has begun. Obama vs. McCain, age vs. beauty, experience vs. emptiness. On the other hand the same media outlets have been insinuating the Clinton is a sore loser, unable to accept reality and is placing demands on Obama before she exits.

There is one problem with this picture. Obama hasn't won anything. His Democratic nomination is speculation not fact, but if enough people perceive his lead as a win, then perception becomes reality and maybe that is the endgame for Obama and his media allies.

So what is your brilliant blogger talking about you are undoubtedly asking. I'm referring to the delegate count, which determines the nomination.

The press is reporting that last night Obama overcame the Delegate hurdle reaching the magic number of 2118. In fact they claim he has 2155 delegates. The problem with the current scenario is that this number is purely speculative, based on primary results and who super delegates have verbally committed too. The problem is that super delegates can change their mind before the convention. Most have already once by supposedly switching to Obama from Clinton.

As it stands now, Obama has 1765 delegates, which he has won in the primary. Hillary has 1640 delegates from her victories. With a margin of 125 separating the two candidates and Clinton winning the popular vote and doing much better in battle ground states as well as looking better against McCain on an electoral map, Super delegates may need to take a second look at the reality of the general election before their convention in Denver.

Your brilliant blogger will not be supporting Obama or Clinton and I believe McCain has a better chance against him than her. So I don't have a particular agenda to see her get the nomination even though I believe Hillary would be a better President than Jimmy Carter II.

What is undeniable is that Obama is winning, but Democratic Party pressure on super delegates is why he was declared the winner last night and that is also a reality that will most likely not change.

With that said, congratulations goes out to Barack Obama for winning the Democratic nomination. More important is a congratulation to America for nominating an African American as a major Party candidate for President. The race profiteers such as Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton can no longer claim America is a horrible racist society. A black man is knocking on the door of the Oval Office and that is something we all can be proud of regardless of politics.


Obama and Clinton address AIPAC
Predictable and not reassuring

Before sen. Obama addressed AIPAC, I must admit that I had preconceived notions on what he would say and how I would write about them. Except for the obvious pandering that all politicians make to interest groups, even I was surprised at the generalities, lack of ideas and his insistence of meeting with enemies without preconditions.

Obama undoubtedly came across as pro-Israel. He discussed the unbreakable bond between the two countries and made his claim that the war in Iraq has made Iran stronger and more influential in the region, which is a very legitimate argument. The highlight and most notable moment was his statement that an undivided Jerusalem must remain the Jewish States capital. With all my criticism and concerns about Obama and his support for Israel, I was surprised and obviously glad to hear him make such a strong statement on an issue that will be a major obstacle to peace.

Unfortunately Obama still doesn't understand that meeting with Iranian President Ahmadickhead without preconditions will only make the United States appear week and strengthen an already unpopular Iranian leader.

Clinton's speech made me shake my head, but not for reasons you may think. Listening to her address AIPAC reminded how much more intelligent and understanding of the issues she is over her Democratic opponent. To paraphrase a sports comment, Obama couldn't carry her underwear. Democrats are infatuated with his speaking skills, but deaf to his actual words.

As expected Hillary came across as pro-Israel to the same degree as John McCain. Just like Obama she placed the problems of the middle-east at the feet of the Bush administration. However unlike the man she is sucking up to for a possible VP invitation, she refuses to meet with terrorist regimes without preconditions.

Hillary's highlight was also in a non-obvious way was her low light. She went into a rant on how combating anti-Semitism is not just a Jewish obligation, but the responsibility of all decent people. She continued on about her own history and commitment to speaking up against anti-Semitism as well as the pro-Israel history of the Democratic Party and how it is an unbreakable aspect of the Party.

The New York senator couldn't be more dead on. However I found myself asking myself why she has been silent about anti-Semitism growing within her Party. Without a doubt the Democratic Party has a history as well as today supportive of Israel. However that support has dwindled and at times anti-Semitism has reared it's ugly head. I've never heard her speak up.

So what has been accomplished by the addressments made by the three candidates? In my opinion McCain and Clinton reaffirmed their commitment to Israel, while Obama who needed to make those who doubt his support feel more secure, sounded very supportive but most likely left many viewers and attendees feeling uncertain do to the lack of substance in his speech.

The major highlights was McCain's South Africa style divestment campaign against Iran and Obama statements regarding an undivided Jerusalem remain Israel's capital. The biggest low light was Obama's stand on meeting with Ahmadickhead.

Obama and Israel will continue to be an issue.

Paulie

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