Wednesday, November 08, 2006

The Morning After

Mid-Term Election Analysis

Last night we saw why this is the greatest country in the World. Democracy with all it's imperfections took center stage last night and proved why it's still the best form of government. A clear message was sent yesterday to GOP, but it wasn't from Democrats, it was from their own base of supporters. That message simply put was, who are you and what did you do to the Party of Reagan? The second message sent was also by the base, but Independents as well, change strategy in Iraq.

Conservatives such as your brilliant blogger have complained for years that the Bush administration and the Republican congress had shamed the Party, neglecting their core principles of limited government and fiscal responsibility. Bloated government and uncontrollable spending have alienated the base for years. When Bush was re-elected in 2004 the base stood by his side only because they believe in Bush regarding the War on Terror and Iraq. They also despised John Kerry and knew he would increase spending and the size of government to even higher levels. After election day 2004, conservatives hoped congress heard their complaints and would learn their lesson...nope.

Since November of 2004 much has happened. GOP concerns over social security and immigration have been ignored, our Iraq policy has not worked and scandals, especially Mark Foley have infuriated the base. Republicans are very happy about the strong economy, overall War on Terror and tax-cuts. which is why you will notice many of the Democratic winners of formerly GOP seats are not exactly liberals. With choices in many areas of moderate Democrats, the GOP base stayed home or casted a protest vote.

With 2008 just around the corner, Republican leaders will have to figure out what went wrong, which I just laid out. The fact of the matter is that this country does lean right of center and if the newly elected member of the house and senate don't govern in a similar fashion they will find themselves in the unemployment line in January of 2009. Politicians are stubborn and rarely accept blame. Many GOP leaders may be in denial of last night and blame the media or the GOP get out the vote effort instead of their own shortcomings. Let's remind them that their GOTV is superior to their opponents and even though the media is bias against them, they have been overcoming that hurdle for nearly 30 years.

Wake up Republican leadership and President Bush. Find your core values and a different strategy in Iraq and you'll do just fine.

Big Winners and Losers

The biggest winners last night are the Democratic leadership, especially Congressman Rahm Emanuel (IL) and Speaker-to-be Nancy Pelosi (CA). Emanuel was head of the Democratic National Congressional Committee and will be given most of the credit for yesterday's Democratic landslide. DNC Chairman Howard Dean is victorious and will most likely keep his position until the 2008 election. Obviously the newly elected representatives as well as Senator Joe Lieberman, who proved that you can't keep a good man down. Ironically, Lieberman may become the tiebreaker senator if the Senate is evenly split after Montana and Virginia are figured out.

Believe it or not there are GOP winners emerging from last night. For starters the re-elected representatives. Anyone who can survive the mid-term storm deserves congratulations. Presidential hopeful Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and Senator John McCain(AZ) are huge winners. McCain stumped hard for the GOP, raised money and has many elected officials owing him a debt of gratitude. With the demise of Virginia Senator George Allen, regardless of that's races outcome, Romney begins to emerge as the charismatic candidate that Allen would of been.

Illinois Congressman Mark Kirk survived the anti-Bush backlash in an area where the President's popularity is barely above Sadam Hussein's. Kirk, who is undoubtedly the best friend American Jews and Israel has in congress, appears to have won by 5 or 6 points no thanks to liberal Jews who have supported him in the past, but bit the hand that feeds them by supporting a newcomer who sold them that he would be just as good on Israel. Kirk will emerge as a leader in the minority GOP congress. Kirk now must decide if he wants to Challenge Senator Dick Durbin in 2008. Look for Kirk to get serious considerations for Secretary of Defense when Rumsfeld steps down within the next few days.

Congressman Chris Shays(CT) and Mike Ferguson(NJ) are in the same boat as Mark Kirk, surviving in conditions ripe for their defeat. They will gain more influence within the GOP.

Losers are plentiful after this years races. Karl Rove and Donald Rumsfeld are at the top of the list. Rove is unarguably a brilliant campaign strategist, but even he proved to be fallible. Much of the GOP debacle is a mandate on Iraq and Dom Rumsfeld. The American people spoke, especially Republicans and they want him gone. President Bush better get used to the words lame duck because that will be the remainder of his Presidency. Immigration, Social Security Reform even Defense will now be greatly compromised. He can change his fate and help the GOP in 2008, by fighting the even bigger government proposals coming from the new Democratic Congress. Time will only tell. The Republicans who lost their seats are losers for not trying harder to change their fate through policy initiatives or changes. More so they are victims of the discontent engulfing their base support. Nevertheless, many of them may be in good shape to regain their seats in 2008. This depends on the nations attitude and if their opponents have been able to maintain their moderate-conservative approach.

The Democrats have losers as well. It goes without saying that John Kerry's Presidential hopes are shot even before election day. His comments about the troops being uneducated is the nail in his coffin. Congressman Harold Ford (TN) took a big risk running for senate and he almost pulled it off. This good man no longer holds political office and may soon be forgotten in the dust of the current Democratic rock star, Barack Obama. Ford's loss means that the African American community is also a loser. The ideas and social programs of white liberals forbid the African American community achieving true equality. Jesse Jackson, Al Sharpton and the far left need African Americans to stay oppressed for their own political gain. Ford could of helped changed that. A moderate African American voice in the senate could of done wonders for the community. Instead Jesse and Al get to continue profiting from their peoples hardships.

You heard this one here first. Yesterdays Democratic victory helps spell defeat for their 2008 Presidential aspirations. For the next two years, Nancy Pelosi will be the main fixture of the Democratic Party. She is a San Francisco liberal, which means she is offensivse to most other liberals. The GOP if smart will start satisfying their base by decreasing spending. She will be the face that fights decreasing spending and smaller government, which the GOP needs to establish to bring back their base. She will also become the face of a weak America. The country wants change in Iraq, but they want to fight the war on Terror. Democrats will fight amongst themselves on how to proceed. This is where most of the newly elected members will disagree with Pelosi. While they fight, the Republicans will want to move forward. Democrats will be perceived as weak.

Illinois Politics

In the Land of Lincoln the big winner was corruption. Scandals, indictments, guilty pleas, it didn't matter. Rod Blagojevich won re-election as Governor and Todd Stroger was anointed Cook County Board President. The reality is that the biggest winner of them all will be Patrick Quinn, the current Lieutenant Governor. It is only a matter of time before the Governor is indicted and Quinn is sworn in.

Even though the Democratic machine was able to get their candidates elected, the conservatives greatly assisted. They did not like Topinka's moderate social views and have some warped idea that a social conservative can win Illinois. They forget that unless you can make a big dent in Cook County, you can't win.

Here comes 2008

Tired of Politics? Too Bad! The Presidential race!



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