Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Your Brilliant Blogger is Back

Hillary Wins Pennsylvania
10-point victory just enough to keep her going

I would of loved to be a fly on the wall at the office of DNC Chairman Howard Dean Tuesday night. He knew that Obama wasn't going to win Pennsylvania, but if he could keep it close or loose by less than 7 or 8 points, he would have serious grounds to ask Hillary Clinton to end her bid for the White House, allowing Democrats to start running against GOP nominee John McCain instead of each other. No such luck for Howie.

As of Wednesday morning, with 99% of the votes counted, Hillary has pulled off a double digit win (9.7 to be exact). Going into Tuesday's PA primary, 10 percentage points was her magic number. She did what she needed to do and you can rest assure this race is going to the convention.

About twenty minutes after the polls closed, FoxNews called the race for Hillary, but prefaced the decision by stating hat they had no idea by how much. About 15 minutes later, analyst Michael Barone stated that after reviewing the early results in conjunction with the exit polls, she may win by about ten points. Kudos to Fox and Barone for once again being spot on.

An hour after the polls closed, the Spin Doctors began spewing their B.S. No I'm not referring to the early 90's Hippie wannabe band, I'm of course referring to the political pundits who were explaining to every camera that would showcase them how the results benefited their guy or gal.

Obama people claimed that their candidate made headway with groups he never did so in the past. I have no idea who they are referring to. As far as I can see he garnered 92% of the Black vote instead of 90%. Congrats...I guess.

The Obama pundits who weren't pulling bongs before the interviews explained that even with Clinton's victory she would only make a small dent in Obama's delegate and popular vote lead. That happens to be correct.

Hillary pundits were exuberant and claimed once again that she is the only candidate that can win the big states. That is a legitimate argument. They also dwelled on her headway into groups that she previously didn't do as well with. That is also correct. Among men, union voters and lower economic classes, she did better than she did in the past.

As you look at the Wednesday morning news reports, the Obama loyal media is downplaying the Clinton win. Calls for her to drop out are stronger than ever. However the last group of individuals who should ask the question is the bias press. Only Democratic voters can answer that question and if Pennsylvania is any indicator, the answer is stay.

Reality Check

Your brilliant blogger is going to remove his anti-Democratic mindset for a few moments and try to present an non-bias analysis of the current Democratic situation. Wish me luck and here we go.

Can Hillary catch Barack in the delegate and popular vote count before the convention? The answer is no. She can possibly lesson the current margin, but won't overtake him. However she will make the case that if Florida and Michigan counted, she would be winning. She will continue her strategy of trying to persuade super delegates that she has the best chance against McCain because she can win big states, which is a must for any candidate in the general election. Her point will have merit.

If Obama wins the nomination, he goes into the election having lost Florida, behind in Ohio and Missouri and giving McCain and excellent shot at Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Any GOP candidate that wins one of the latter states will win the Presidency.

Hillary gets the nomination, conventional wisdom puts all the above states as a toss up or leaning Democrat with the exception of Florida, which will still go GOP. However the question of the black vote becomes interesting. The African Americans (sorry for the term Jeff) I've spoke to all believe that Obama has already won the nomination. Any scenario that gives the candidacy to Hillary will anger them to the point that a large percentage will stay home and some may vote McCain. A Hillary nomination with the latter in mind, will put California, Illinois and New Jersey in play for McCain. No matter how hard Obama may campaign for Hillary, the black community will be angry.

Another factor that is in play that the media has continued to defuse and if your MSNBC completely disregard, is Rush Limbaugh and Operation Chaos. Last night Fox and CNN both reported that 1 in 10 voters were Republicans who crossed over and registered as Democrat. The media wants you to believe that this is a result of Obama capturing the hearts of GOPers. However, Hillary won the race and by a substantial margin. The idea that Republicans may have voted for her because they want her to win is absurd. Hillary is synonymous with Sadam in minds of most staunch Republicans.

Rush Limbaugh and his twenty plus million listeners are undoubtedly having an impact on the Democratic primary. Limbaugh is urging Republicans nationwide to vote for Clinton so the Democratic chaos continues. Even if Limbaugh was successful in having 5 percent of GOPers switch for the primary, there is Clinton's 10-point win compared to 6 or 7 points. The difference is her having an argument to go forward. She does and Limbaugh may be the reason. Sorry Chris Mathews, that is the harsh reality.

The big fear that mainstream media jokers have is Clinton upsetting Obama in North Carolina. NC is a conservative state that will go to McCain in November. Limbaugh will push his plan hard over the next two week and if Hillary wins, he will be the reason. Even if it's close with an Obama win, the results will prove the power of Limbaugh. Right now Obama has a 15 point lead in North Carolina, so what happens on election day could be telling.

The overall reality is that Hillary isn't going nowhere and that is causing panic in Democratic circles. She has made her case to stay and will do so until the last primary election and most likely the convention. Denver will be fun.


Carter failed in the eyes of Palestinians
Former President proved to be liar and terror accomplice

Palestinian foreign minister Riyad al-Malki told a conference in Spain that Carter's vist to the middle east and meeting with the leader of Hamas "did not produce any results," said Malki. "Hamas offered nothing to president Carter. They reiterated the same positions. There was no change on the part of Hamas."

Carter apparently blatantly lied to the world when he said Hamas told him it would recognize Israel's right to exist if recognition was approved by a Palestinian vote. That turned out to be complete B.S.

A few hours after Carter made the announceent, Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal told a press conference in Damascus that Hamas would not recognize the Jewish state and would insist on the right of return for 4.5 million Palestinian refugees.

The fact that Carter would lie to the world by attempting to make Hamas appear to be a partner for peace is despicable. His meeting with the terror organization, it's leader and to lie about the meeting results makes Carter an accomplice to terrorism...it's that simple.

With Hamas clarifying their hatred for Israel after Carter's deception and the PA claiming Carter accomplished nothing, proves Carter is a huge part of the problem. Once again Carter proves he is no friend of the Jews, especially Israel and it is about time the Jewish community recognize that the former President is our enemy, similar to Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran.

Many Republicans are salavating at the idea of Carter speaking at the Democratic National Convention. I don't share that view. Israel and peace with her neighbors should be a non-partisan issue. It serves America's best interest. I hope Howard Dean and the DNC recognize that Carter is not just a problem for the Democratic Party, but for America and Israel.

Carter's role should be limited to getting coffee and donuts for the stage and audio crew. "Would you like cream and sugar Mr. Obama," should be the only words uttered by Carter in Denver.

Paulie

2 Comments:

At 4/23/2008 8:39 PM , Blogger Jeff Morton said...

Apology accepted!

I propose this idea....the Clinton's are, in my opinion diabolical. So...suppose they have an ace yet to play? I think that this hopeful (Super delegate) strategy is actually calculated. If the Clinton's knew that Barack would never accept Vice President perhaps they are baiting him. Suppose they will drop a bomb that implodes the Barack Campaign. Of course, they won't be anywhere near the fallout?

 
At 4/23/2008 9:48 PM , Blogger Jeff Morton said...

Jimmy Carter says, "Rice is lying" What does this make Hamas and the Palestinians? Carter is a Democrat...Democrats make no sense, never have and never will. Just look at the Presidential campaign, Florida, Michigan, Super Delgates, Bill Clinton put it all together and what have you? Who the hell knows. I can't wait for the Convention

 

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